Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 12.914380 14.547038 16.383957 18.619366 21.287337 24.396404 28.333477
2025-06-29 10.274747 12.211101 14.558693 17.661949 21.730048 26.990473 34.496468
2025-07-06 8.826329 10.853297 13.432369 17.035845 22.078554 29.111825 40.109671
2025-07-13 8.696275 11.075308 14.259006 18.980348 26.084937 36.899899 55.801806
2025-07-20 8.187654 10.700738 14.192931 19.613724 28.252712 42.382938 69.571581
2025-07-27 7.458098 9.926880 13.450886 19.105692 28.511034 44.766464 78.545780
2025-08-03 7.130427 9.683374 13.437760 19.692385 30.621264 50.787486 96.880687
2025-08-10 6.648675 9.163395 12.944075 19.422706 31.180010 54.025428 110.500719
2025-08-17 6.233367 8.705219 12.496038 19.161438 31.690614 57.261559 125.558200
2025-08-24 5.896430 8.338358 12.154893 19.034303 32.419600 61.118507 144.205497
2025-08-31 5.533344 7.902953 11.662821 18.577188 32.415555 63.333787 159.319830
2025-09-07 5.269587 7.606046 11.373591 18.453397 33.067052 67.254025 182.317562
2025-09-14 4.880792 7.095987 10.707882 17.597830 32.131671 67.270555 192.829702
2025-09-21 4.517367 6.607623 10.047845 16.694398 30.977863 66.513833 200.454830
2025-09-28 4.240153 6.244716 9.578974 16.114789 30.463289 67.371074 215.668214
2025-10-05 4.352334 6.534422 10.274219 17.915956 35.773077 86.565544 337.215295
2025-10-12 4.273607 6.493275 10.369351 18.501569 38.293419 98.557219 444.568007
2025-10-19 4.059786 6.205538 9.988135 18.031892 38.024689 101.138730 495.611365
2025-10-26 3.990916 6.166810 10.068941 18.574261 40.556849 114.889261 666.380429
2025-11-02 3.830391 5.956343 9.807446 18.325011 40.861755 120.362667 780.669634
2025-11-09 3.682029 5.760001 9.560271 18.083445 41.151551 125.988757 918.219490
2025-11-16 3.557580 5.600540 9.374667 17.965865 41.791999 133.521190 1115.411339
2025-11-23 3.407921 5.388111 9.071652 17.542928 41.438514 136.468060 1263.155923